Photovoltaic power generation costs plummet to approach thermal power

At present, the global economy is in the third energy revolution. The development of human economy and society will increase the demand for energy. However, the era of fossil energy marked by coal and oil will eventually pass, and solar energy is renewable due to its inexhaustibility. Features such as cleanliness become a new energy representative and will surely be the darling of the future.

Solar energy is the best energy source
It is estimated that the current fossil energy is the main energy consumed by the world, and the proportion in China is even as high as more than 90%. However, as a non-renewable resource, the fossil energy era marked by coal and oil will eventually pass. The pessimistic estimate will be about 100 years, and the optimistic estimate will be 200 years. The extensive and extensive use of fossil energy has brought about increasingly serious "byproducts": environmental pollution, climate warming, and ecological deterioration.

Coal is China's main energy source, and coal-based energy structures are difficult to change for a long time to come. Relatively backward coal production methods and consumption methods have increased the pressure on environmental protection.

The era of fossil energy, marked by coal and oil, will eventually be depleted, which urgently requires humans to develop new resources. Among renewable resources, wind energy, geothermal energy, nuclear fusion energy, and solar energy are the main forms of existence, in which the water is limited by geographical factors and the amount of electricity generated is affected by the abrupt change of rivers, especially large-scale hydropower stations, and natural rivers. The ecological impact is huge.

Although wind energy is also a clean energy source, there are also many drawbacks in the development and utilization of wind energy, such as unstable wind speed and unstable energy generated; the use of wind energy is limited by geographical location, and the conversion rate is low; the development and utilization of nuclear energy is mainly concerned with safety concerns. .

According to the analysis of the installed capacity of energy demand, the global population was 6.5 billion in 2006, and the combined energy demand was 14.5 TW (1 TW=1000 GW). By 2050, the world’s population will reach 10 billion, which is an increase of 1.6 per capita GDP per capita. %, GDP per unit of energy consumption is reduced by 1% per year, then the energy demand for installed capacity will be about 30 ~ 60TW, by then mainly rely on renewable energy to solve. However, the world’s potential hydropower resources are 4.6 TW, economically exploitable resources are only 0.9 TW, wind energy is actually exploitable resources 2 44 TW, and biomass energy 3 TW (total 8 TW combined).

From the actual situation in China, China has about 1.2 million square kilometers of gobi and desert areas. Even if only 5% of the desert is developed and utilized, more than 5 billion KW solar photovoltaic power generation systems can be installed, and the annual power generation can reach 6 trillion kilowatts. At the time, it is equivalent to 1.5 times the sum of power generation in the United States in 2010, which is equivalent to the sum of the predicted power generation in China in 2015.

Therefore, among these renewable energy sources, only solar energy is the cleanest, safest and most reliable source of energy that can guarantee the future demand of human beings. Its potential resources are 120,000 TW, and actual exploitable resources are as much as 600 TW. Therefore, some experts believe that solar energy storage technology is the ultimate solution for humans to solve energy problems.

On the Other hand, according to the EPIA of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, solar photovoltaic power generation will occupy an important seat in the world's energy consumption in the 21st century. It will not only replace part of conventional energy sources, but will also become the main body of energy supply in the world. According to the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC), by 2030, renewable energy will account for more than 30% of the total energy structure, and solar photovoltaic power generation will reach over 10% of the world's total electricity supply. Renewable energy will account for 2040. With a total energy consumption of over 50%, solar photovoltaic power generation will account for more than 20% of the total power; by the end of the 21st century, renewable energy will account for more than 80% of the energy structure, and solar power will account for more than 60%.

To this end, solar power generation will make a historic and trans-century contribution to solving the three major world problems of “energy crisis”, “environmental pollution” and “sustainable development” for all humanity. In the long run, as the clean and renewable energy of solar photovoltaic technology is the most mature, the most maneuverable, there is a huge space for development, which is a major trend of history can not be changed.

Technical breakthrough has reached the "critical point"

The key to the competition between photovoltaic industry and traditional fossil energy is price and cost. Because the price of photovoltaic power generation is higher than conventional energy, the market mainly depends on the state's policy subsidy for photovoltaic power generation. In recent years, China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic module manufacturing technology has made great progress.

Remarkable achievements have been made around various research and development efforts to reduce costs. The performance of crystalline silicon raw material preparation technology has made tremendous breakthroughs. The thickness of silicon wafers has been continuously reduced, and the efficiency of the battery has been continuously improved. In just a few years, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has decreased. Far exceed market expectations.

First, the thickness of the wafer continues to decrease. Reducing the thickness of silicon wafers is one of the cost-effective technical measures to reduce the consumption of silicon materials and reduce the cost of crystalline silicon solar cells. For more than 30 years, the thickness of solar cell wafers has decreased from 450 to 500 micrometers in the 1970s to 180-200 micrometers, which has reduced by more than half, which has played an important role in reducing the cost of solar cells. At present, the thickness of the domestic excellent battery cell has reached the international advanced level of 180 microns. Without increasing the fragmentation rate, if the solar cell thickness is reduced from 180 microns to 160 microns, the solar cell silicon consumption can be reduced by 10%, and the component cost can be reduced by 6%.

Second, battery efficiency continues to increase. The laboratory efficiency of monocrystalline silicon cells has increased from 6% in the 1950s to the current 25%, the laboratory efficiency of polysilicon cells has reached 20.3%, advanced technologies have been injected into the industry, and commercial battery technologies have been continuously improved. . The current mass production of crystalline silicon cells has an efficiency of 14% to 20% (single crystal silicon cells 16% to 20%, polysilicon 14% to 16%). The efficiency of crystalline silicon cells is increased by 1%, and the cost of electricity generation can be reduced by 6%.

At the same time, China has reached the forecasted electricity cost of experts in 2014 in advance, which reflects the rapid breakthrough of photovoltaic technology. On August 12, 2011, the China Renewable Energy Special Committee of the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association released the "China's Photovoltaic Price Generation Online Access Roadmap" (hereinafter referred to as the "Road Map") in Beijing. The analysis of the “roadmap” assumes that the on-grid PV tariff in 2009 will be 1.5 yuan/kWh, and will decline by 8% annually thereafter; the on-grid tariff will increase by 6% each year. By 2014, the electricity and electricity prices in China's industrial and commercial sectors will first exceed the on-grid electricity prices of photovoltaic power generation, and will take the lead in achieving "flat-rate Internet access." Assume that in 2009, the benchmark price for photovoltaic power generation is 1.5 yuan/kWh. According to the annual decrease of photovoltaic power generation price by 8%, the photovoltaic power generation price in 2014 will be lower than 1 yuan/kWh, and the average price of conventional industrial and commercial power consumption in 2009 will be 0.81 yuan/year. In kWh, if it increases by 6% every year, the price of commercial and industrial electricity will surpass the electricity price of photovoltaic power generation by 2014, and it will take the lead in achieving parity Internet access. The domestic market for photovoltaic power generation will start quickly.

Judging from the current domestic actual situation, the time for PV parity access is far ahead of the analysis by experts in August 2011, and this time will constitute a very important investment opportunity in advance. According to the expert's graph in 2010, it is expected that it will reach 1 yuan/kWh in 2014, and in fact it has reached 0.8~1.00 yuan/kWh in 2012, while the current cost of electricity in the domestic photovoltaic industry has reached 0.7 yuan~0.8. Yuan, if we add a certain amount of national policy subsidies, the cost of electricity can already reach 0.4 yuan and below.

The ultimate goal of photovoltaic development is to achieve affordable Internet access. The current cost of conventional energy is around 0.4 yuan. With the continuous development of photovoltaic technology, the annual electricity cost in 2014 has been achieved three years ahead of schedule, and the current cost of electricity in the industry has generally reached 0.7 to 0.8 yuan, which means that the current photovoltaic technology has reached a "critical point." Once this critical point is broken, market demand may explode geometrically, and the era of alternative energy and even main energy will come earlier.

Finally, as compared with traditional fossil fuels such as coal, as coal mining volume increases year by year, resource consumption leads to a reduction in reserves, and the shortage is getting worse. The price of fossil energy will inevitably increase, which will in turn increase the cost of thermal power generation. The mining, transportation, and burning of coal and petroleum all require extensive human involvement, and the increasing labor costs year after year are also inevitable. In terms of external costs, taking into account the pollution caused by the burning of thermal power plants, especially the large cities in Beijing, with severe fogging, the central government plans to invest 1.7 trillion yuan in air pollution control. This part of the project has implicitly formed the cost of future thermal power. The continuous rise will be even more trending. Therefore, if the environmental management costs are also measured, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is already lower than the cost of thermal power.

The government’s attention to ecological issues has been raised to a high level. The construction of “ecological China” and “beautiful China” has been proposed in succession. The extensive economic growth mode with high input, high consumption, high emission, and low efficiency has been difficult to sustain. This is also an urgent need to change the mode of development and development approach.

The photovoltaic industry has developed through competition in these years. Compared with other industries, it is an industry where the gap between China and advanced countries is relatively small. With the support of the Chinese government, the promotion of corporate technological progress will enable China's photovoltaic industry to capture more market share in the global PV market in the future.